气候变迁的冲击与调适

Climate Change, Impact and Adaptation

简又新

台湾永续能源基金会董事长

Abstract

半个世纪以来，气候变迁及地球暖化，造成灾害频传，包括热浪、暴雨、干旱等各种极端气候不断上演，并环环相扣，而格陵兰等冰川大面积融化使得海平面上升，迫使小岛国家面临生存危机。连台湾也深受极端气候所害，无情的八八风灾是台湾人一辈子的阴影。随着影响范围日渐扩大，整个世界在能源、水资源、粮食都将产生严重失调。亚洲开发银行(ADB: Asian Development Bank)日前发表的一项研究结果就指出，如果继续忽视气候变迁问题，亚太国家将面临粮食和能源短缺、贫穷问题恶化与作物不断减收等后果。这些气候衍生之问题不仅只会在电视新闻上被报导，它会真实的在每个人生活周遭发生。

During the past half century, climate change and global warming have caused frequent disasters such as heat waves, heavy rains, and droughts; all these disasters are closely connected. The melting of glaciers in Greenland is causing sea level to rise and threatening the survival of island nations. Taiwan is also severely influenced by extreme climates, the 88 Flood will haunt Taiwanese people lifelong. With the increase of the affected area, there will be worldwide imbalance in energy resources, water resources, and food supplies. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently released a research that indicates, if climate change continues to be ignored, Asian Pacific countries will suffer consequences such as shortage in food and energy, worsened poverty problems, and continual reduction of crop yield. These climate change related issues will not just be broadcasting on television news; they will take place around everyone.

根据?合国气候变化纲要公约(UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)所提出之应对气候变迁的方式为：「减量」与「调适」。未来全世界将会限制化石燃料等的使用量，迈入低碳经济时代，此蕴含着新兴产业革命机遇与时代的到来，是项挑战，更是个机会，我们应紧抓住这个剧变中之机遇，扭转时势。好比英国从18世纪中叶带动全球第一波工业革命后，经济实力先继被美、中、德、日所超越，不过，英国人仍不放弃再崛起之机会，当全世界把地球暖化视为世纪大威胁时，英国人却把它视为新的机会，盼再创低碳新经济革命。

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reduction and adaptation are considered as solution for fighting against the threat of climate change. In the future, the world will restrict petroleum fuel consumption, and enter an age of low carbon economy. This implies the arrival of a new industrial revolution. It will be a challenge as well as an opportunity. We must seize the opportunity during this great change. During the mid 18th century, Great Britain took the lead of the first wave of the Industrial Revolution, but its economic strength was subsequently surpassed by the United States, China, Germany, and Japan. However, the British did not give up on regaining the edge; as the world look upon global warming as a great threat of the century, the British considers it a new opportunity and aims to launch a low carbon economy revolution.

除了产业上的改变外，个人习惯的「调适」也是至关重要的。台湾的环境与经济未来面对气候变迁灾难之冲击似乎是无可避免，而根本解决之道在于社会大众意识的觉醒，我们必须改变过去的生活习惯，选择简朴永续之生活型态，齐心携手解决这一世纪最大问题，努力将各种冲击降到最低，为下一代的未来争取最大生机。

Other than industrial and economic changes, personal adaptation is also crucial. Disasters caused by climate change will have inevitable impact on the environment and economy of Taiwan; the solution rests upon public awareness. We must change our habits and choose a sustainable way of living. We must solve the greatest problem of this century together, work to minimize its impact, and help the next generation survive.